Harry Markowitz and Portfolio Selection
❝ At that time, I thought if the stock market goes up and I’m completely out of it, then I’ll look silly. And if it goes down and I’m 100 percent in it, I’ll look silly. So I went fifty-fifty. So, I was, at that time, minimising maximum regret.
That’s what I did in 1952, but that’s not what I would do today and is not what I would recommend a 25-year old do now. Now, I’d probably put them 100 percent in stocks.
I know from repeated exposure the approximate asset class mix I prefer, and I invest in that mix, roughly. I implement my choice with ETFs for equities and with individual bonds for fixed income. ❞
❝ 那时，我想，如果股市上涨而我完全没有参与，那我会显得很傻；如果股市下跌而我百分之百投入其中，我也会显得很傻。所以我选择了五五分。也就是说，那时我是在尽量减少最大的后悔。
这是我在1952年所做的选择，但这不是我今天会做的事情，也不是我现在会建议一个25岁的人去做的。现在，我可能会让他们百分之百投资于股票。
通过多次实践，我大致了解了自己偏好的资产类别组合，我基本上按照这个组合进行投资。我用ETF来投资股票，用单一债券来投资固定收益。❞
William Sharpe and the CAPM
❝ Ideally, it would be a combination of a riskless real portfolio, something like TIPS and all the tradable bonds and stocks in the world in market proportions. I looked at various index funds, ETFs, with a very, very careful eye on expense ratios, because expense ratios, as you know, can add up hugely.
I put some of my money in this exact portfolio. It has four components, the reason it’s four is the fees are lower if you use these four than some other. They all happen to be Vanguard. They are a US total stock market fund, a non-US, a US total bond market fund and a then a non-US total bond market fund.
That’s how you invest, but you’ve got to save enough first. Most people, many people, are not. You’ve just got to save an awful lot, because nobody else is going to do it for you, except Social Security. ❞
❝ 理想情况下，投资组合应由无风险的实际资产以及全球所有可交易的债券和股票，按市场比例组成。我考察了各种指数基金和ETF，并非常非常仔细地关注费用率，因为正如你所知，费用率累积起来可能非常可观。
我把部分资金投入了一个这样的投资组合。它包含四个部分，之所以是四个，是因为使用这四个产品的费用比其他一些更低。它们恰好都是先锋（Vanguard）公司的产品，分别是：美国总股票市场基金、非美国股票市场基金、美国总债券市场基金，以及非美国总债券市场基金。
这就是投资的方法，但前提是你得先存够钱。大多数人，很多人，都没有做到。你必须存下很多钱，因为除了社会保障，没有其他人会替你做这件事。❞
Eugene Fama and Efficient Markets
❝ I don’t think there is a Perfect Portfolio. I think, at least, in my current view of the world, you have a multidimensional surface that’s characterized by a continuum of portfolios with different sorts of tilts, and the market portfolio is the center of that universe.
In aggregate, people have to hold the market portfolio. That’s it, and that’s an efficient portfolio in any model you want to think of.
And then you can decide to tilt away from that, towards other dimensions that we think capture different kinds of risk, and that’s personal decision. - Diversification is your buddy. If you decide to tilt away, you want to do it in the most diversified way you can.❞
❝ 我认为不存在完美的投资组合。至少以我目前对世界的看法来看，你面对的是一个多维的空间，这个空间由一系列具有不同倾向的投资组合组成，而市场投资组合就是这个宇宙的中心。
总体而言，人们必须持有市场投资组合。就是这样，无论你采用哪种模型，这都是一个有效率的投资组合。
然后你可以选择偏离市场投资组合，转向我们认为能够捕捉不同风险类型的其他维度，这完全是个人的决定。——分散投资是你的朋友。如果你决定偏离市场投资组合，你应该以尽可能分散的方式去做。❞
John Boyle and the Vanguard Portfolio
❝ I’ve concluded that regular rebalancing is not terrible, but not necessary. I’ve come to conclude that a 60/40 portfolio is probably the best option, rather than going from 80/20 to 20/80 in a target retirement plan. Although, I spend half my time worrying if I have too much in stocks and the other half of my time worrying that I have too little in stocks.
The secret to investing is that there is no secret. There is only the majesty of simplicity. When you own the entire stock market through a broad stock index fund, all the while balancing your portfolio with an allocation to an all-bond-market index fund, you create the optimal investment strategy. Owning index funds, with their cost-efficiency, tax-efficiency and their assurance that you will earn your fair share of the markets’ returns, is, by definition, a winning strategy.
Stay the course! ❞
❝ 定期再平衡并不坏，但也不是必须的。我认为60/40 的资产配置可能是最优选择，而不是像目标退休计划那样从 80/20 调整到 20/80。虽然话是这么说，我一半时间担心自己股票投资太多，另一半时间又担心股票配置太少。
投资的“秘诀”其实是——根本没有秘诀。真正的奥义在于“简洁的伟大”。当你通过一只广泛覆盖市场的股票指数基金持有整个股市，同时用涵盖整个债券市场的债券指数基金来平衡你的投资组合时，你就已经打造了一个最优的投资策略。指数基金具备低成本、高税务效率，并能确保你获得市场回报的合理份额——从定义上来说，这就是一种成功的策略。
坚持到底！❞
